LNG trade-flows in the Atlantic basin: trends and discontinuities
LNG trade exerts a defining influence on the development of regional and global gas flows and prices. In this study Howard Rogers models the interactions between LNG and pipeline gas flows and prices in Europe North America and Asia.
Since 2008 markets have moved from a 'very tight world' of competition for LNG cargoes and prices around oil parity to a 'very loose world' of surplus and prices well below oil parity. The study concludes that the dynamics of future trade flows could imply a succession of these cycles rather than the achievement of a stable converged global gas system. This would suggest that price volatility could increase - and with it the opportunities for trading - which will have a significant impact on markets which continue to link gas prices to those of oil.
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