At ASC Global, our Q1 2026 market analysis reveals a stark reality: the world’s manufacturing capacity is being reallocated at an unprecedented rate. To feed the demand for AI infrastructure, major fabs have pivoted away from conventional memory (DDR4 and DDR5) that powers laptops, smartphones, and vehicles, focusing instead on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and enterprise-grade SSDs.



Memory prices are now expected to surge to historic levels in early 2026, reflecting a structural imbalance between capacity and demand. Contract prices for conventional DRAM are projected to rise 90–95% year-over-year in Q1 alone, significantly higher than earlier estimates. PC DRAM may see increases exceeding 100% due to stronger-than-expected shipments and persistently low inventories, while server DRAM is forecast to climb roughly 90% as hyperscalers compete for limited supply. Mobile DRAM pricing is following the same trajectory.

The Death of the DIY Market?

The most visible casualty of this shift is the retail consumer. In a move that signaled the end of an era, Micron recently announced the complete dissolution of the "Crucial" brand, a staple for PC builders for decades. By reallocating 100% of retail wafer starts to HBM4 and enterprise production, Micron has effectively exited the DIY market.

This isn't an isolated incident. With SK Hynix reporting that its 2026 capacity is already "sold out" and Samsung raising contract prices by as much as 60% to meet AI-driven margin targets, the retail and "non-enterprise" sectors are being crowded out. We project that average selling prices for PCs will jump 8% this year, potentially shrinking the global PC market by 9% as manufacturers struggle to absorb these costs.

This shortage impacts on a great range of electronics products:
• Smartphones: Qualcomm warns of a "100 percent" dip in its smartphone business due to the shortage. Prices for mid-range and flagship phones are expected to rise by 8%, with Apple potentially paying 80% to 100% more for memory this quarter to maintain its supply.
• Laptops: Major manufacturers like Lenovo, Dell, HP, Asus, and Acer are planning price hikes of 10% to 30%. Enterprise SSD prices have surged an estimated 53–58% in a single quarter—the largest increase on record.
• Market Shrinkage: IDC suggests the global PC market could decline by up to 8.9% in 2026, as consumers are priced out of the market.

The "Legacy Squeeze" in Automotive

The impact extends far beyond the home office. The automotive and industrial sectors are facing a "Double Threat." Manufacturers are retiring older memory nodes (DDR4/LPDDR4) faster than the automotive sector can redesign its long-cycle systems. These high-reliability, low-volume parts are now competing for the same silicon wafers as high-margin AI chips. The result? Price increases of up to 70% for automotive-qualified DRAM.

The Return of Panic Buying

We are seeing a return to the "panic buying" and "double ordering" reminiscent of 2021. Hyperscalers like Meta, Google, and AWS have adopted "open-ended" procurement strategies, essentially buying every available chip regardless of price. This leaves smaller OEMs and Tier-2 data centers in a precarious position, forced to prioritize continuity of supply over price optimization.

The Road Ahead: 2026–2027

The consensus among analysts is clear: supply will remain structurally tight through at least 2027. While new fabrication plants are under construction in Texas and South Korea, they will not offer relief for the current fiscal year.

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan recently stated there may be no meaningful relief until 2028. Micron has similarly confirmed that its Idaho memory fab will not deliver significant output until 2028. SK Hynix has previously projected tightness through late 2027, and Samsung is expected to increase wafer supply by only about 5% this year.

For the next 18 months, the industry must brace for a "bullwhip effect." The priority for any business reliant on silicon is no longer "How much does it cost?" but "Can we get it at all?"

As AI continues to reshape the global economy, the memory shortage is the first major tax on that progress. One that every consumer and corporation will eventually have to pay.

About ASC Global

Global is a leading stocking distributor specializing in electronic components, electrical parts, and industrial automation products. Our free Q1 2026 Market Report does not only provide deep-dive analytics into the structural shifts defining the current "Memory Supercycle". It also lists factory and open market lead times and pricing trends for all component categories, end-of-life updates, testing & failure rates, Nexperia crisis updates, and more.

https://ascglobal.com/market-report